A Vision for 2025

by Danny Summers

In recent weeks, I was asked to share with the Ball Horticulture Team during one of their monthly meetings. My part was virtual with many gathered at the Ball Headquarters in West Chicago, with hundreds more from their locations around the world.

The request was (1) to give a brief overview of what The Group does, (2) to provide highlights of how the 2024 year is shaping up, and (3) any possible glimpse into 2025.

The first two areas are pretty easy for me. Number 1 - I do it all the time. Number 2 - I often do this to other groups throughout the year. But number 3 is much more difficult.

Actually, when Jim Kennedy, Ball's Head of Sales, added number 3, I responded with, "My crystal ball is pretty foggy."

Most of you are already well underway with your planning for the new year. As I craft this message you already have a pretty detailed plan in place for at least the first half of the Spring of 2025.

You have the full details of your sales and margin on every category, if not individual products, this past year. You also know the full details of costs, both operations and wage and wage benefits.

Most of you are already in a strong position to report in the upcoming 2024 Annual P&L Study when Tim Quebedeaux invites you to participate next month.

So you have all these points of data and facts. These areas are clear.

But where, when, and how does for our crystal ball?

The foggy portion of the next season rolls in from the factors outside of your operation. You can be 110% prepared for the spring season with products, operations, and people. But it's the outside factors you don't know, and most of it you have very little control over.

Your vision for 2025, to see through the fog, is an educated guess. It is a seasoned combination of gut feel. Intuition. Whatever you want to call it.

So here are a few thoughts I shared with the Ball Hort Team.

The 2024 year will end with The Group being about -5% off in Sales over 2023. That really was from fewer Transaction Counts, as Average Sale pretty well matched the previous year. We saw this emerge in several key weeks leading up to Mother's Day. In those key weeks, we also saw our weather ratings decline.

Following those key weeks, I asked these questions multiple times...

"Is our gap in Transaction Counts a result of (1) Our customer base not coming as often or (2) Not seeing some of our customer base at all?"

"Are we seeing a faster transition of our "Boomer" audience downsizing, moving away, etc., and the new younger audience just not filling that gap?"

The answers to these questions certainly will vary at each Center but to ask these questions is important. As often as I have asked these questions, I don't have an overall consensus answer.

Aside from seeing the weather factors and results from those key weeks in 2024, we might also recognize there were a number of other outside factors that could have impacted our results... overall economy, relationships between consumer income versus cost of living (resulting in disposable income), election year, and we might also throw in general conflicts around the world. All of these could have factored into how your audience felt about spending money beyond our normal excuse... the weather!

Considering all of these "crystal ball" factors, how do they influence your Vision for 2025?

Here's what I shared with the Ball Hort Team...

We have a More Enthusiastic Young Audience.
It's a Non-Election Year.

• We are beginning to see Interest Rates Lowering.
• Many “New” Homes are not yet landscaped.
• Many “New” Gardens are not completed.

And, of course... with Weather-Permitting...

Our Vision for 2025 looks promising! Being fully prepared and being structured to be nimble and able to react quickly to changes and opportunities should put you in the best position!

What's your Vision for 2025? What's your educated guess, a.k.a. gut feel or intuition?

Send me a quick email or text, and let me know your thoughts. Or start a conversation on GroupEs or Owners-Only eList this week.

Be sure to see John Kennedy's timely blog message below to help your Vision for 2025 and your focus for planning... The Art of Minimalism.

Let's be prepared to have A Super 2025!

Danny Summers
[email protected]
Tel: 678-909-7770
Cell: 678-761-7145

REMEMBER: Your interaction (by phone and email) with Group Service Providers such as Tim Quebedeaux, Sid Raisch, John Kennedy, Jean Seawright, and of course Danny Summers are included in your retainer!