Incredible Shrinking Transactions... and What to Do – Part 1

by Sid Raisch

I’m writing this fully knowing that some of you are going to be mildly irritated and full blown mad at me about it. But I will speak the truth as I see it and will ask you to either deny it at your own risk, or deal with it as effectively as possible. This isn’t only to define the reality of the problems we face, it is to offer a simple solution. The challenge isn’t having a solution. The challenge is to convince enough people to embrace the opportunity to accept it and to step forward decisively and boldly. It is also to ignore the naysayers and those who will stand in your way - our way.

Over 215 million Americans across three generations (Gen X, Gen Y aka Millennials, and Gen Z) now understand the critical importance of plants and pollinators for life and sustainability. They seek knowledge beyond what previous generations did, recognizing that neither big-box stores nor online searches can fully satisfy their quest. This awareness presents an unprecedented opportunity for the garden industry. If we keenly observe market trends and respond smartly, we can achieve our industry's highest aspirations. For those who might not find inspiration in this vision, it's a cue to step aside and watch as proactive leaders make impactful strides putting preparation for opportunity well ahead of hoping and wishing and blind luck.

Incredible Shrinking Transactions, and What to Do
A trend of shrinking transaction counts has returned to the IGC after being suspended for several years during the Covid Surge of interest in gardening. This will continue unless we make the right moves to take advantage of the right and only opportunity ahead of us.

Dangerous False Economy
The rising average transaction is masking the problem of losing transactions. Making up for decreases in transactions with rising average purchase has allowed soft growth, but even that barely kept up with price increases that largely were in response to inflation of wholesale product costs. Growth and profit are elusive as the election year heats up. We can hope that the first half of the year will remain stronger than the second, but history has delivered a soft second half in the past several Presidential election years.

Some IGC’s are still beating the shrinking transactions trend, typically where there are explosions of move-in population. It’s more like a few of them are really.

Why is this Happening?
It’s simple. Boomers are aging and with that comes lifestyle changes like downsizing, moving out, moving back to care for elderly parents or to be near kids, or moving into assisted living, hospice care, funeral homes, and cemeteries. It’s not morbid if its true.

Aging Boomers is Half of the Story
It was easy having Boomers age into the market. They didn’t ask for much, besides everything. Demand shifted from very simple vegetable gardening and foundation landscape plans to designed landscapes with flowing beds filled with mass plantings of juniper and spirea and the like with flowering and shade trees. Then came perennial and hosta gardens, annual mulching and COLOR everywhere, even in hanging baskets of flowers. We got it all from the Boomers.

The Other Half of the Story
Millennials - As you know, every generation is dismissed by their elders. They’re too this and too that and not serious enough, and the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Same with Millennials, but now we know that hasn’t happened, and that we need them desperately to bridge from the Boomer boom over the GenX thud and back to the Echo Boom, otherwise known as Millennials. They’ve got the numbers, they’re earning more, especially with the shortage of GenX to fill the shoes of exiting Boomers. Many of them are inheriting money in the greatest generational transfer of wealth in world history. This is like a PERFECT storm of opportunity, if we can instead of dismissing them - embrace them, and take their money, which they’re more than willing to give us for the right reasons.

The Secret Sauce of Marketing to Millennials and Gen Z
Marketing to Millennials and Gen Z isn’t the same as selling to Boomers. It’s selling mostly the same stuff, but not all of it. And whatever we’re selling, we’re positioning it VERY differently. As you may have heard, Millennials are into a few things like Authenticity, Transparency, Organic, Sustainability, Natives, and Pollinators. This is not so secret of course, but as simple as it is, the problem you will have is to let go of the past and step swiftly and firmly out here into what we call the PRESENT before much more of the Boomer money is gone because clearly - Gen X isn’t filling the gap. This isn’t a lip service game, that’s what authenticity is really all about. The specific authenticity they’re looking for though is where the lip service is easily spotted and rejected. Don’t take them for granted. Don’t talk down to them. Don’t underestimate their ability to spend. Don’t keep doing what you’re doing and think you’re doing something different.

Rules of Authentic Engagement
Authentic is as authentic does. Get real or get out of the way. If you’re going to meet the needs of Millennials and Gen Z then understand them, and actually meet them.

In the voices of Millennials and Gen Z, the chorus for sustainability sings a tune of authenticity and action. These generations, armed with digital prowess and a keen sense of social justice, have set forth rules that are not just guidelines but a lifestyle manifesto.

Firstly, transparency is non-negotiable. We crave the truth about how products are made, the labor behind them, and their environmental footprint. Greenwashing? That's a deal-breaker. We're not just buying a product; we're investing in what it stands for.

Secondly, sustainability is not a marketing buzzword but a practice woven into the very fabric of our daily lives. From thrift shopping to advocating for policy changes, it's about making choices that echo our values. It's a commitment that extends beyond personal gain to consider the well-being of our planet and future generations.

Thirdly, technology and innovation are our allies in this journey. We leverage them not just for convenience but as tools to track, measure, and amplify our impact. Apps that help reduce waste, platforms that facilitate sharing resources, and companies that are brave enough to innovate sustainably receive our applause and support.

In essence, for Millennials and Gen Z, being authentic about sustainability means living with purpose, challenging the status quo, and embracing a future where we all thrive together. It's about making every action count, with the understanding that small ripples can create big waves. In our quest for a sustainable future, authenticity is our compass, guiding us toward a world we're proud to pass on.

Figure This Out
Millennials and Gen Z are taking Global Warming, Climate Change, the Environment, Food Safety and Security, and just about every other important part of future life on earth seriously as their responsibility to fix and protect. Give them that. They pretty much believe Boomers have created a more polluted and less protected environment. If you individually are in denial of climate change you are much better off keeping that to yourself, which isn’t by the way very authentic and certainly isn’t transparent so tread very carefully.

Millennials and Gen Z are very much in the way of your future or a part of it - you choose. They’re determined to use their spending, their influence in their community and politics, and especially in their role as parents raising their children responsibly to create and protect a better place on earth for future generations.

The Bright Light - Pollinators
Millennials and Gen Z grew up with the well-developed and mainstream public education-supported understanding of what pollinators are and why they are important for a sustainable environment. They now view pollinators as an ESSENTIAL tool to overcoming environmental obstacles by protecting and building habitats and food sources for them. What’s more, many Boomers also embrace pollinators. I’d say roughly half of them do.

[To be continued... CLICK for Part 2 now.]

Before procrastination or other busyness steals another year from you Text or Call 937-302-0423 or send an email to [email protected] .

Sid Raisch is an advocate for family business leading growth, change, and results throughout US horticulture. Redefining the business future for consumer horticulture by understanding how the end-to-end supply chain needs to be redirected is a skill Sid has honed into an art. He has understanding and insight through inquisitive observations and extensive experience and has served as a trusted advisor helping transform both national and local businesses into more profitable and sustainable businesses. Developing national and international educational programs that create change in culture, community and company provides Sid venues with a front row seat creating effective and innovative business models.

Sid is a Certified Value Builder System Advisor, and currently serves as Chief Strategist and the Swiss Army Knife of Consultants to The Garden Center Group clients. Contact Sid at [email protected] or call or text  937-302-0423.

REMEMBER: Your interaction (by phone and email) with Group Service Providers such as Sid Raisch, Tim Quebedeaux, Jean Seawright, John Kennedy, and of course Danny Summers are included in your retainer!